Inflation will be the most watched data next week as China, the UK and the US report their monthly CPI figures. Japanese GDP numbers will also be important as Japan’s economy continues to show increasing signs of strength, while the Riksbank’s latest monetary policy meeting will likely attract attention too. However, the week’s highlight could come from Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony in Congress, which will be the first since Trump took office.
Japan to post fourth straight quarter of growth
GDP data out of Japan will start the week on Monday, giving the first glimpse into how Japan’s economy fared in the final three months of 2016. The economy is forecast to have expanded at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016, slightly down on the 1.3% rate of the third quarter. If confirmed, this would make it the fourth consecutive quarter of positive growth for Japan since 2012-13. A weaker yen since the US election, along with stronger global demand boosted Japanese exports at the end of 2016, and the trend appears to continue at the start of 2017.
Australian jobs in focus
The Reserve Bank of Australia revised down its growth forecasts for the Australian economy this week following the quarterly drop in GDP in the third quarter. However, the central bank is confident that was a temporary blip and expects growth to return to above trend by the end of 2017. Labour market data supports this view as employment numbers, particularly full-time, have improved markedly in recent months. Employment growth will likely have eased in January but the expected rate of 10k jobs is still a decent rate. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay unchanged at 5.8% when the data is published on Thursday. A stronger figure would be positive for the Australian dollar and help the currency extend its year-to-date gains. Also to watch out of Australia next week is the NAB business confidence survey on Tuesday.
Further acceleration of producer and consumer prices in China
The People’s Bank of China unexpectedly raised short-term interest rates at the start of the month in a move signalling a shift towards tighter monetary policy. In addition to burgeoning debt levels, rising price pressures are also being watched by investors in anticipation of a possible increase in the PBOC’s benchmark one-year lending rate. Inflation data out on Tuesday are expected to show both the CPI and PPI rates rise further. Annual CPI is forecast at 2.4% in January, while PPI is estimated to rise to a more than 5-year high of 6.3%.
UK inflation moves closer to BoE’s 2% target
The UK will have a busy calendar next week with inflation, unemployment and retail sales figures released on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday respectively. As higher fuel and import costs start to push their way into the headline CPI calculation, annual inflation in the UK is expected to rise to 1.9% in January from 1.6% previously. Core inflation is forecast to rise more modestly though to 1.8% from 1.6%, giving the Bank of England some defence in maintaining rates at a record low of 0.25%.
The higher inflation rate has yet to have an impact on pay demands however, as wage growth is expected to hold steady at 2.8% year-on-year in the three months to December. The unemployment rate is also forecast to stay unchanged, at 4.8%.
The same cannot be said for retail sales as there are some signs that higher consumer prices are deterring some shoppers. Retail sales unexpectedly slumped by 1.9% month-on-month in December, raising fears that the UK’s consumer-led growth could be running out of steam. A partial rebound is projected for January, with volumes expected to rise by 1% m/m.
Yellen testimony eyed ahead of Trump’s tax announcement
The US will also see the release of inflation and retail sales numbers next week but Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before Congress will likely attract more attention. Yellen sounded more hawkish in her speeches made in January compared to the usual cautious language we’ve become accustomed to. Her two-day testimony in Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday will therefore be watched closely for further evidence that the Fed is getting closer to raising rates for a second time since December. The dollar, which was boosted this week after President Trump said an announcement on tax reforms will be made within weeks, could rally further if Yellen signals that a March rate hike remains firmly on the table.
In terms of data, producer prices on Tuesday will be the first major release of the week. Inflation numbers will follow on Wednesday and are expected to show annual CPI accelerating to 2.4% in January. Core inflation is forecast to ease slightly though, from 2.2% to 2.1%. Retail sales are also out on Wednesday. After a solid 0.6% gain in December, retail sales are forecast to rise by a more moderate 0.2% month-on-month rate in January. However, the control measure of retail sales (used in GDP calculations) is expected to edge up from 0.2% to 0.3% m/m. Rounding up the data on Wednesday will be the January industrial output figures.
Other data out of the US next week are building permits and housing starts on Thursday, while the Philly Fed manufacturing index on Thursday will also be eyed.
Eurozone data may struggle to lift the euro
The political uncertainty from this year’s elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, and more recently, the possibility of another deadlock between Greece and its creditors, has soured sentiment for the euro despite growing signs that the bloc’s economy is on the mend. The first data to watch for the Eurozone next week is the second estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2016. Growth is forecast to remain unrevised at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. Industrial output and the German ZEW business survey are also due on Tuesday.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank will publish the accounts of its January policy meeting. ECB policymakers have been keen in recent weeks to play down talk of QE tapering as the recent pick-up in both growth and inflation in the euro area has raised speculation that the central bank may soon start to wind down its massive asset purchase program. Investors will therefore be closely scrutinizing the ECB’s minutes for any clues as the Governing Council’s bias towards policy tightening.
Another central bank from the continent coming into focus next week is Sweden’s Riksbank. In December, the Riksbank announced an extension of its QE program despite a solid growth rate and inflation moving out of negative territory. The bank is expected to keep rates at -0.5% when it meets on Wednesday but may signal future policy direction.
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